Table of Contents
What’s happening?
- Georgill Isserson, Soviet military theoretician and architect of Soviet victory in World War II, once said,
- “Mobilisation does not occur after a war is declared, but ‘unnoticed’, proceeds long before that.”
- The Ukraine crisis has precipitated because the US-led NATO has been ‘mobilising’ against Russia by going back on its promise made to the Soviet Union in March 1991 that NATO will not push into territory east of Germany.
- There can be no greater indictment of US-NATO than George Frost Kennan, who formulated the US policy for “containment”
- of the Soviets during the Cold War (1947-89),
- Subsequently scripting that “expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era.”
- NATO has not only expanded eastwards, it has deployed troops in the region, supplied arms to Ukraine and deployed
- special forces in that country.
Russian invasion
- Instigated by the West, Ukraine made the biggest mistake by using force against peaceful protests in Crimea, which invited the Russian invasion and annexation of the region in 2014, which shocked the US and NATO.
- The disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan affected America’s relations with its European allies, bringing President Joe Biden’s ratings down.
- The Ukraine crisis was therefore precipitated to forge Western
- The demands made by Russian President Putin boil down to the West adhering to the promise made to the Soviet Union in March 1991.
- But there is little scope left for diplomacy with US-NATO having rejected every Russian demand.
What is Putin’s demand?
- Jack Matlock, former US ambassador to Moscow, writes in his book Reagan and Gorbachev: How the Cold War Ended:
- “What President Putin is demanding, an end to NATO expansion and the creation of a security structure in that insures Russia’s security along with that of others, is eminently reasonable.
- He is not demanding the exit of any NATO member and he is threatening none.
- By any pragmatic, common-sense standard it is in the interest of the United States to promote peace, not conflict.”
Warsaw pact
- In 1954, NATO voted to admit a newly rearmed West Germany into its organization.
- The Soviets responded with the formation of the Warsaw Pact.
- The Warsaw Pact was formed in 1955.
- Its original members included the Soviet Union, East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and Albania.
- By the late-1980s, anti-Soviet and anti-communist movements throughout Eastern Europe had begun to open cracks in the alliance.
- In 1990, East Germany left the pact to prepare to reunify with West Germany. Polish and Czech political leaders also voiced their desire to withdraw.
- On 25 February 1991, the Warsaw Pact was declared
Can US help Europe?
- Germany, which earlier wanted Nord Stream 2 left out of the Ukraine conflict, has been ‘coerced’ by the US to cancel the project.
- Germany was on the wrong side during both world wars and its economy will be hit without Russian gas, as would Europe, even as Biden is working on extra fuel from Qatar, which in turn will affect other regions including India.
- Russia was exporting 23.3 billion cubic feet of gas per day. The US cannot fill that gap since it exports only 9.6 billion cubic feet per day.
- Prolonged conflict over Ukraine will aggravate the existing energy crisis in Europe — consequences of sanctioning Russian gas being catastrophic.
conclusion
- There is no comparison between the NATO alliance’s army and Russia’s, which is only a fraction of the former.
- Putin is demanding a guarantee from NATO that Ukraine would not be a member.
- He wants the expansion in Eastern Europe to stop and also NATO to stop the deployment of weapons in its neighbourhood.
Q) Which Country has the longest coastline in Europe?
- Greenland
- Croatia
- United Kingdom
- Norway