Table of Contents
- In the October World Economic Outlook, described the global economy as in a synchronized slowdown, with escalating downside risks that could further derail
- Since then, some risks have partially receded with the announcement of-
- US-China Phase I trade deal and lower likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.
- The slight downward revision is owed largely to downward revisions for India.
- The projected recovery for global growth remains
- It continues to rely on recoveries in stressed & underperforming emerging market economies,
- As growth in advanced economies stabilizes at close to current levels.
WHAT THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH GLOBAL GROWTH?
- Rising geopolitical tensions, notably between the US and Iran, could disrupt global oil supply.
- Intensifying social unrest across many countries.
- Erosion of trust in established institutions.
- Lack of representation in governance structures
INDIA’S GROWTH PROJECTION
- The International Monetary Fund has slashed its estimate on India’s 2019 economic growth to- 8% from the 6.1% expansion it projected in October.
MAIN REASON
- Sharper-than-expected slowdown in local demand & Stress in the non-bank financial sector
WHERE INDIA IS DOING WELL?
- Reserves have risen to record level.
- The current account deficit has narrowed.
- Inflation, although we have a little jump right now because of vegetable prices, we think (it) has been under control for the last few years.
CONCLUSION
- The report cited monetary and fiscal stimulus, along with its expectation of subdued oil prices,
- For the projected improvement in India’s growth this year and the next.
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