Table of Contents
- 2 days after signing the deal Taliban goes back to old ways
UNDERSTANDING THE BASICS
- The events we are about to discuss are strongly related to U.S President Donald Trump’s domestic policies
- The four issues Trump has focused on the most in order to get re elected are –
- Reducing U.S trade deficit with the world
- Making sure U.S stock market reaches all time high/more employment/ better economy
- Illegal immigrant issue
- Bringing back the American soldiers from Syria and Afghanistan
TRUMP HAS ALREADY PULLED OUT OF SYRIA
AFGHANISTAN PULL-OUT IS MORE COMPLICATED
- How U.S invaded Afghanistan
- US President George W. Bush demanded that the Taliban hand over Osama bin Laden and expel al-Qaeda; bin Laden had already been wanted by the FBI since 1998.The Taliban declined to extradite him unless given what they deemed convincing evidence of his involvement in the 9/11 attacks, and ignored demands to shut down terrorist bases and hand over other terrorist suspects apart from bin Laden.
HOW U.S INVADED AFGHANISTAN
- The request was dismissed by the US as a meaningless delaying tactic, and it launched Operation Enduring Freedom on October 7, 2001 with the United Kingdom.The two were later joined by other forces, including the Northern Alliance troops on the ground.
AFTER THE INVASION
- U.S was responsible for the future of Afghanistan after it overthrew the Taliban regime
- U.S tried to help build a democratic Afghan government. U.S forces also trained the Afghan Nation army
AFGHAN NATIONAL ARMY
- The land warfare branch of the Afghan Armed Forces. It is under the Ministry of Defense in Kabul and is largely trained by US-led NATO forces.
- Sizable numbers of Afghan National Army Officers are sent to be trained in India either at the Indian Military Academy in Dehradun, the National Defence Academy near Pune or the Officers Training Academy in Chennai.
AFGHAN ARMED FORCES
- Active personnel – 174,300
- The Afghan Armed Forces are the military forces of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.
- They consist of the Afghan National Army and the Afghan Air Force.
- One of the major goals of the US effort has been to train thousands of Afghan troops. Most of US spending on reconstruction has gone to a fund that supports the Afghan Army and police forces through equipment, training and funding.
- But nobody in Afghanistan — not the US military, and not
- President Ashraf Ghani’s top advisers — thinks Afghan military forces could support themselves.
- The Afghan Army in particular suffers from increasing casualty rates and desertion, which means they have to train new recruits totaling at least a third of their entire force every year.
HOW OBAMA PLANNED
- President Barack Obama had planned to hand over total responsibility for security to the Afghans by the end of 2014 and to draw down all US forces by 2016.That plan faltered when the Taliban took quick advantage and gained ground.
- The US military had to persuade first Obama, and then President Donald Trump, to ramp up forces.
AFGHAN ARMED FORCES
AFTER 18 YEARS AND $2 TRILLION, WHAT DID THE US GET IN
- There is little to show for it.The Taliban control much of the country. Afghanistan remains one of the world’s largest sources of refugees and migrants. More than 2,400 US soldiers and more than 38,000 Afghan civilians have died.
AFGHANISTAN?
- There is little to show for it.The Taliban control much of the country. Afghanistan remains one of the world’s largest sources of refugees and migrants. More than 2,400 US soldiers and more than 38,000 Afghan civilians have died.
TRUMP’S PULLOUT
- the US and Taliban signed an agreement for “Bringing Peace to Afghanistan”, which will enable the US and NATO to withdraw troops in the next 14 months.
- India attended the signing ceremony in Doha, and was represented by Ambassador to Qatar P Kumaran.
THE PACT
- The pact is between the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban” and the US.The four-page pact was signed between Zalmay Khalilzad, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, political head of the Taliban.
THE KEY ELEMENTS
- TROOPS WITHDRAWAL: The US will draw down to 8,600 troops in 135 days and the NATO or coalition troop numbers will also be brought down, proportionately and And all troops will be out within 14 months — “all” would include “non- diplomatic civilian personnel” (could be interpreted to mean “intelligence” personnel).
- TALIBAN COMMITMENT: The main counter-terrorism commitment by the Taliban is that “Taliban will not allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including al-Qaeda, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies”.While Miller said the reference to al-Qaeda is important, the pact is silent on other terrorist groups — such as anti-India groups Lashkar-e-Toiba or Jaish-e- Mohammed. Again, India, not being an US ally, is not covered under this pact.
THE KEY ELEMENTS
- SANCTIONS REMOVAL: UN sanctions on Taliban leaders to be removed by three months (by May 29) and US sanctions by August 27.
- The sanctions will be out before much progress is expected in the intra-Afghan
CEASEFIRE
- This is identified as another potential “trouble spot”.
- The agreement states ceasefire will be simply “an item on the agenda” when intra-Afghan talks start, and indicate actual ceasefire will come with the “completion” of an Afghan political agreement.
DIFFERENCES
INDIA’S OVERALL REACTION TO THE DEAL
WHAT INDIA’S FM SAID
- “I do believe that the past 20 years have brought about big changes in the war-torn This is not the Afghanistan of 2001. Our message to the US is the achievements should not be lost.We have to wait and see how it plays out,” he added.
ROAD AHEAD
- Sooner or later the Taliban will come to power with international recognition. And India will have to then open links with them.
- There are indications now that Pakistan-based Haqqani network within the Taliban will emerge as leaders. India will now have to take a strategic approach once everything settles down
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