What Spain Is Telling Us About Second Wave Of Coronavirus

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COVID 19

Last week’s 750 billion-euro ($877 billion) Covid-19 rescue fund marked a high point in the European Union’s plan to tackle the economic fallout of the virus.
But a new flare-up in infections on the continent is a grim reminder of the more immediate epidemiological threat. While it’s not a second wave yet, it’s a serious test of government strategies intended to avoid one.

In Spain, new daily cases hit almost 1,000 last week, driven by local spikes in areas such as Aragon and Catalonia, where nightclubs are now being closed and curfews applied on bars.
This shouldn’t come as a shock, given the epidemiological trade-off of easing lockdowns. People are naturally moving around more as stay-at-home curbs are rolled back, and this was always going to give the coronavirus more opportunities to mingle.

Even if offices and public transport are still quiet, European streets are filled with shoppers, diners, and drinkers.
Estimates of the virus’s reproduction rate from Bank of America economists suggest that it’s risen back to around or above 1 in countries including the U.K., France, Italy, Spain and Belgium, meaning one infected person will on average spread it to more than one other person.

So far, the alertness of public authorities has been encouraging.
The new widespread curbs in Spain and Belgium are worrying, but smaller “smart lockdowns” have been effective too in towns and regions in Germany, the U.K. and Italy.
And the wearing of face masks, initially discouraged in many countries, is now being wisely enforced by policymakers.

Case statistics in Spain show people in their 20s and 30s are a key source of new infections.
With governments naturally reluctant to shut their economies again, Europe’s ability to avoid a new spiral of infections and lockdowns depends a lot on testing and tracing resources to keep tabs on chains of transmission.

Much has improved in this department: France, Spain and Italy are testing so widely that only an estimated 1% of tests return a positive result.
But there are gaps. Contact-tracing apps have been a flop, suffering from delays and low take-up. And testing laboratories are suffering bottlenecks
Overall, while there’s reason for cautious optimism, Europe hasn’t definitively escaped the threat of a second wave. It’s going to be a long summer, and maybe an even harder winter.