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CONTEXT

  • India’s July-September 2019 (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP)  growth rate fell to 4.5%
  • In the 2nd quarter of the previous year, the GDP growth stood at  7.1%
  • The GDP growth seen in the last quarter was slowest in more than  six years.
  • The previous low was recorded at 4.3% in the final quarter  (January-March) of 2012-13.

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  • The GDP numbers for the July-September quarter come after 6 consecutive quarters of falling GDP growth rate.

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  • The slowdown in economic growth has taken  away from India the tag of world’s fastest  growing major economy to China.
  • India’s growth rates in the Q4 2018-19 and Q1  2019-20 were slower than that of China, which  is a much bigger economy.

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  • Delivering the valedictory address at National Economy  Conclave, organised by the Rajiv Gandhi Institute for  Contemporary Studies, Dr. Singh said,
  • This is clearly unacceptable and the aspirations of our people  want that this country should grow at 8-9% per annum and,  therefore, the sharp decline in growth rate from 5% in the first  quarter to 4.5% in the second quarter is worrisome.”

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WHAT RBI IS EXPECTED TO DO?

  • The sharp slowdown in growth is likely to prompt another rate  cut by the Reserve Bank of India in the monetary policy  announcement due on 5 December.
  • These cuts have, however, meant little to nothing for  companies and to retail borrowers.
  • The cumulative cut of 135 basis points over the last nine  months has translated into a meagre 29 basis points (just over  a fifth).

WHAT IS THE FUTURE PROSPECT?

  • Many experts believe that Q2 of 2019 will be the quarter of bottoming out.
  • Since many of the measures to revive the economy has been taken by  the government in the month of August & 
  • The growth is expected to pick from the next quarter of the current fiscal year.

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