- The peak stage of COVID-19 pandemic in India has been delayed by the eightweek lockdown along with strengthened public health measures and it may now arrive around mid-November during which there could be a paucity of isolation and ICU beds, and ventilators, according to an ICMR study.
- Lockdown helped bring down the number of infections by 69 to 97% thereby allowing time for the healthcare system to shore up resources and infrastructure.
- In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60% effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November.
- After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed.
- However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83% less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures
- With the additional capacity which has been built up for testing, treating and isolating patients during the lockdown period, the number of cases at the peak would come down by 70%
- In terms of COVID-19 mortality, approximately 60% deaths were prevented and one-third of this mortality prevention is attributed to the reduction in unmet need for critical care as a result of the intervention
- The overall economic health system cost of this pandemic is estimated to be 6.2% of India’s GDP. The ventilators available for COVID beds are 21,494, the ministry had said, adding that order of 60,848 more ventilators has been placed.
- How to use the study? Ramp up the Health Systems Make region/area based
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