Table of Contents
The News
- Ethiopia is on the brink of a civil war after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently announced that he has ordered troops to counter an allegedly violent attack by armed forces in the country’s northern Tigray region.
- The domestic conflict in Ethiopia comes after several smaller conflicts that have been festering for months that could now spiral and impact the Horn of Africa region at large.
Where is the Conflict going on?
Core Issue
- Problem 1: Ethnic Federal setup
- The primary origins of Ethiopia’s internal wrangles lie in its ethnic federal political system.
- The Tigray People’s Liberation Front dominated the country’s ruling coalition from 1991 until 2018. It was the architect of ethnic federalism.
- Under Ethiopia’s federal system, the country’s regions enjoy considerable autonomy, such as having their own security forces, their own parliaments, and the right to a referendum for self-rule.
- The TPLF and other parties favor ethnic federalism and see Abiy Ahmed as centralist who pursues a unitary political party and a strong central government.
Core Issue
- Problem 2: Economy/Influence
- Abiy had been leading a country with growing economic problems like poverty, unemployment, inequality (Tigray region is more wealthier than other states).
- Add to it, the Covid-19 pandemic and the problems exacerbated.
- According to Experts, the Tigray region is wealthier than other parts of the country, and more importantly, has a well-trained army.
- The authority of the Tigray officials has considerably reduced since Abiy took office in 2018, making their waning influence a point of contention.
Why the Conflict?
- Trigger 1
- June 2020: Ethiopia had witnessed widespread ethnic clashes following the killing of prominent Oromo singer Hachalu Hundessa.
- After Hundessa’s death, the federal government came down heavily, including on civilians who were protesting. Opposition leaders were also arrested and imprisoned.
- Trigger 2
- September 2020: Tigray held local elections.These elections were considered “illegal” by the federal government.
Prolonged Conflict
Highly Inflammable
- Recently Ethiopian PMO released a statement saying the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party in that region, had “tried to steal artillery and other equipment from federal forces stationed there.
- TPLF later announced that one part of the federal military stationed in Tigray had defected to their organization.
- Heavy fighting, including artillery fire has been reported in Ethiopia. The telephone lines were blocked and internet services were shut down.
Dangerous for Africa..!!
- If the conflict between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray authorities exacerbates, it might spill over to neighbouring countries in the Horn of Africa.
- Eritrea may be hardest hit, due to its proximity to Tigray.
- Ethiopia has also been engaged in a long-standing conflict with Egypt over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam over the Blue Nile.
Irony Alert..!!
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