China-US Rivalry On Mekong Mainland – Burning Issues

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Why we are discussing this?

Unlike other key foreign policy areas where President-elect Joe Biden will likely change the course left behind by outgoing President Donald Trump,
The Mekong River region in mainland Southeast Asia represents a low-hanging fruit where continuity from Washington carries consensus.
As China has dominated the Mekong space by operating a string of upstream dams and controlling downstream river resources,
Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam as adversely affected riparian countries.
These countries have looked for ways and means to mitigate and counterbalance Beijing’s aggressive freshwater offensive.

All the incoming Biden administration has to do is to keep its eye on the Mekong and
Work with like-minded partners to keep mainland Southeast Asian countries from becoming Beijing’s uncontested front yard.

Until recently, the Mekong mainland comprising the CLMTV — Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam — was considered a subregion.
Three decades ago when China’s development trajectory started,
The Mekong region was cultivated by Japan through the Asian Development Bank, conceptualised and manifested under the Greater Mekong Subregion.
But over the years, China has effectively stolen Japan’s thunder as its 11 dams (among several dozens more in the works) started hogging water upstream.
To stamp its authority and make its Mekong supremacy a fait accompli,
Beijing has marginalised the first-generation Mekong River governance framework by coming up with the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) in 2016,
Overshadowing the Mekong River Commission (MRC) and Mekong agreement from two decades earlier.

On land, China is trying to unilaterally control and manipulate water supplies to downstream countries through dam construction and operation,
Resulting in water volatility and periodic droughts in lower Mekong countries, which in turn are forced to rely on China’s initiatives and goodwill.
In the sea, China has unilaterally built and weaponised a slew of artificial islands.
Whether by hogging water inland or building land in the sea, Beijing is playing by its own rules.

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic this year, the Trump administration has pressed hard and upped its game in the Mekong mainland,
By upgrading the decade-old Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) from the government of former president Barack Obama into the Mekong-US Partnership last September.
The continuity and expansion of LMI into the launch of the Mekong-US Partnership is a renewed commitment to mainland Southeast Asia.
In view of the new occupant at the White House, the CLMTV countries and their maritime Asean neighbours will be watching carefully,
Whether Mr Biden will adopt the foreign policy outlook and orientation of Mr Obama in 2008-16 and Whether he will retain some or reject most of the policy legacy under President Trump’s one-term government.

For the Mekong region, Vietnam will likely be the most US-leaning,
While Cambodia and Laos will be more pro-Beijing,
With Myanmar and Thailand keeping proximity and distance vis-à-vis China at the same time.
As a US treaty ally, Thailand stands out for its pivot to China under a military-backed regime since its military coup in 2014,

But this trend could change directions if a genuinely democratic system comes into place as per the demands of the protesting youth movement.
Similarly for Cambodia, if the younger generation and oppositional supporters can rise up, Prime Minister Hun Sen’s “all-in” approach to China may go on a different path.
But for the foreseeable future, the Mekong mainland is likely to gravitate further into China’s orbit.

This is why the Mekong downstream riparian countries would welcome other major external partners to counter China’s upstream monopoly.
The region still has a bad aftertaste from the Obama years where the eloquently announced “pivot”, later renamed “rebalance”, strategy turned out weak without backed-up muscle.
President Trump’s trade and technology war and posture towards Beijing was followed through, With deeds and action, yielding leverage to Asean states.

Q) Which of the following statements regarding Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) is coorect?