China’s Role In Myanmar Coup – Burning Issues – Free PDF Download

What’s happening in Myanmar?

• Myanmar’s de facto leader, Suu Kyi, and other top political leaders including President Win Myint were detained in a raid on Monday, in an apparent coup.
• The nation’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, seized control of the country.
• The military has said that it is using a state of emergency to take control for one year, promising that it will hold elections afterwards.
• It is unclear, however, if the pledge is genuine or a ploy to buy time.

What is the military trying to achieve here?

• While the military had previously committed to transition Myanmar to a democracy, it had never truly relinquished power,
• Retaining authority in the parliament with veto rights and a guaranteed number of seats.

• Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy party in the latter months of their first term moved to give more authority to the civilian government, and the military simply were not buying.
• By following through on a coup, the military is sending a clear signal that it has no plans to be marginalized in a government it has controlled for decades.

• The US lifted sanctions on Myanmar in October 2016 after it held elections, established a civilian government and took other steps toward restoring democracy,
• Although targeted sanctions remained on certain military officers.

China

• As democratic leaders around the world slammed the Burmese military and President Joe Biden said the US was “taking note” of who was standing up for Myanmar’s people, China’s communist leadership took a softly-softly approach.
• By contrast, the Chinese foreign affairs spokesperson merely noted the coup and refused to discuss whether China, which has substantial oil and gas interests in Myanmar,
• Had warned against such a move when the Chinese foreign minister met its military leadership last month after the heavy defeat of its proxy party at the polls.

China’s interest in Myanmar

• China plays an increasingly important role in Myanmar.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping has a vested interest in dozens of infrastructure projects key to his regional Belt and Road
• During the Rohingya crisis, China was one of the few countries that stood behind the government, and has provided the nation with free Covid vaccines.
• If it were to support the military government now, it could in fact help to get several stalled projects off the ground.

Sanctions

• The Tatmadaw has been pushing the electoral fraud narrative since November,
• But the leadership would have hesitated to take action unless they had confidence that they could rely on Beijing,
• To shield them from the inevitable consequences in the United Nations from Western nations, and possibly also offset incoming sanctions by expanding economic ties between the two neighbors.
• Something about that meeting seems likely to have led the military leader to believe that China would be willing to step up for its neighbor.
• The strange thing here, though, is that Beijing has been growing much closer to Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government than it was to the military regime in Myanmar in the past.
• And that largely owes to the Tatmadaw to any whiff of dependence on a foreign country, even with China.
• The Myanmar military even suspended major Chinese projects such as the $3.6 billion Myitsone Dam.
• So perhaps a commitment from Min Aung Hlaing to continue and deepen the economic ties between the two countries is what made the Chinese hesitate to draw a line in the sand in support of Aung San Suu Kyi.
• If the dam project restarts, regardless of the cost to displaced locals, that will be a major sign of a shift toward China.
• The calculation here would be that China rarely misses an opportunity to expand its influence in Asia at the expense of the United States,
• So when Washington and its allies would come to impose consequences on Myanmar,
• Chinese officials would still find it in their own interest to intervene on behalf of the leadership there.

But will the sanctions be effective?

• Global sanctions would devastate the economy and could impact the livelihoods of millions of people.
• But it will hardly harm the military elite because the military is well-documented to have vast riches across diverse segments of the local economy —
• From raising billions mining precious stones to millions more from brewing beer.

Q) Recently Rohingya refugees were shifted to Bhasan Char island. This island belongs to which country?

1. Myanmar
2. Bangladesh
3. India
4. Thailand

Latest Burning Issues | Free PDF

Sharing is caring!