Table of Contents
GLOBAL RECESSION
- A global recession is recession that affects many countries around the world—that is, a period of global economic slowdown or declining economic output. It happened last time in 2008.
IMF ON GLOBAL RECESSION
- The IMF estimates that global recessions occur over a cycle lasting between eight and ten years. During what the IMF terms the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative.
DATA
- In August 2019, a survey of economists by the National Association for Business Economics concluded that 72% of analysts expect a US recession to hit by the end of 2021.
CORONAVIRUS ADDS TO THE FEARS
- The SARS outbreak of 2002 and 2003 caused “the worst economic crisis in Southeast Asia”
- If the Chinese government can’t get a handle on the coronavirus’ quickly, the virus’ spread could prove to be the straw that breaks the global economy’s back.
- UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT
- China is part of a global supply chain that fuels economy around the world
- For example mobile manufacturing in India will be badly affected if Coronavirus is not contained
DETAILS
- India’s handset industry is days away from trouble. Pankaj Mohindroo, chairman of the India Cellular and Electronics Association, said the industry will feel the pain next week unless Chinese factories resume full operations from Monday.
- Lava chief manufacturing officer Sanjeev Aggarwal said: “The supply chain is certainly getting impacted and we need to think of alternatives already, else it will lead to a major disruption… The situation is precarious.”
WARNING FROM WITHIN CHINA
DETAILS
- In Hangzhou, where Alibaba has its headquarters, much of the city is under lockdown. Many communities can send only one family member out every two days to buy supplies.
- That should encourage more online shopping. But merchants on Alibaba’s platform lack inventory. The factories that supply them are struggling to restart. And those with goods to sell have found that courier companies are lacking couriers.
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