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Risks remain: on GDP growth

Indian economy grew at an impressive rate of 8.2% in the April-June quarter this year.
Factors responsible

Manufacturing sector: 13.5% but last year it was 1.8%
Construction: 8.7% but last year it was 1.8%
Agriculture: 5.3% but last year it was 3%
Resolution of several GST transition problems 5. Budgetary support to the rural economy 6. The effect of a lower base last year

Q1 of 2017-18: economy had grown just 5.6% owing to the lingering effects of demonetisation and the impending implementation of GST Key risks for the economy
Just over 86% of the budgeted fiscal deficit target for the current financial year has been reached within the first quarter
GST collections, after a slew of rate cuts to spur consumption, have dipped to about ₹94,000 crore in August.
The falling rupee
Oil price trends
The expanding current account deficit are equally worrying
Rise in inflation
Growth in the services sector has decelerated from last year’s levels.
The ‘normalcy’ of this monsoon is marred by wide regional variations.
RBI unlikely to adopt an easy money policy that is congenial to growth.
India needs to grow even faster to spur job creation.

Retail therapy:

on India-U.S. 2+2 dialogue

Helicopters in general and MRHs in particular are a critical capability vacuum for the Navy, with several capital ships sailing with empty flight decks.
The timing of these decisions is important as they come just before the first 2+2 dialogue between India and the U.S. on September 6.
National Security Strategy released in December 2017 says the U.S. will deepen strategic partnership and support our leadership role in Indian Ocean security and the broader region.
Before embarking on multi-billion dollar deals, India must get clarity from the U.S. on its CAATSA
India must retain its independent national security and foreign policy.
We got to think seriously about domestic defence manufacturing.
– For a shift in gear: on managing natural disasters
Kerala’s unique topography: more than a million people were displaced
Incidents of flooding have become frequent, aided by human intervention.

Vulnerability of India

70% of its coastal areas are prone to tsunamis and cyclones
60% of its landmass vulnerable to earthquakes
12% of its land to floods
Earthquake engineering is taught as a specialisation at just a few universities.
In 2003, post Ockhi proposals of State Level Training Institution in Kerala was dreamed of but never manifested into reality.
We don’t have maps of safe zones.

Things are as they used to be.

Comptroller and Auditor General to highlight the National Disaster Management Authority’s performance in projects such as vulnerability assessment and mitigation projects of major cities as “abysmal”.
Disaster relief typically excludes anyone living in an unauthorised area. It also exclude share-croppers and agricultural labourers, while focussing only on small and big farmers.
Planned urbanisation can withstand disasters, a shining example being Japan which faces earthquakes at regular intervals.
India needs a strong disaster management agency

. • Disaster preparedness should be focussed on meeting the immediate contingency, implementing a conceptual, long-term rehabilitation strategy while maintaining an ethnographic understanding.

Perhaps, it’s time to move on from being focussed only on managing natural disaster emergencies to improving resilience. Making peace with Naya Pakistan
For the Pakistani ‘deep state’ , the main enemy is India.
Democratic leaders in Pakistan, especially more recent ones like Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, have paid a heavy price whenever they sought to enlarge their democratic constituencies.
They have been unable to withstand the machinations of the Pakistani ‘deep state’ , which controls almost every single aspect of political activity in Pakistan.
Every new Prime Minister or leader in Pakistan spouts at the beginning of his tenure.
Many of the other key Ministers in Mr. Khan’s Cabinet are holdovers from previous administrations, quite a few being from the Pervez Musharraf period.
Today, the ‘deep state’ adopts more insidious means to maintain control over the levers of power.
Included in this repertoire of means and methods is choosing charismatic leaders, who have no worthwhile political base and willing to do their bidding, to front for them.
In doing so, they avoid accusations of military dictatorship, and of trampling on democracy and democratic rights.
In this context, India will need to create a framework that leads to realistic outcomes, given that it genuinely believes in peace with Pakistan.
The first step should be an acknowledgement that the new government in Pakistan faces threats, from elements both within and outside the government.
Mr. Khan will be compelled to adopt what may be termed as the ‘Pakistan First’ approach’ , in which relations with India would have least priority, and the emphasis would be on better relations with China as also the U.S. and the West.

Protecting the dissenters: on activists’ arrests

The observation in court of Justice D.Y. Chandrachud that “dissent is the safety valve of democracy” is a clear reiteration of the citizens’ right to disagree with, denounce, and decry a situation or state of affairs that is unjust and oppressive.
This is the philosophy that inspired our freedom movement and defines India’s constitutional democracy, which is predicated on the people’s right to call state power to account, albeit within the constitutional framework.
A nation born to freedom is expected to vindicate the supreme sacrifices made by its freedom fighters so that we may enjoy the fruits of liberty, of which eternal vigil is the price.
The criminal alone is not responsible for the crime. Time will also record the crime of those who are neutral/indifferent to it.
Our own struggle for freedom was rooted in the conviction that a nation has a right to revolt, for which our founding fathers adopted peaceful means.

Important News

- Conditions in Rohingya camps are disastrous, says UN official
- A year since nearly a million Rohingya refugees poured into Bangladesh, the situation is yet to stabilize, and the impending cyclone season could spell disaster for the humanitarian effort, a senior United Nations official based in Cox’s Bazaar has warned.
- This year’s UN joint response plan (JRP) has received only 34% of the funds needed, in contrast to about 85% last year, she said.
- – Villages must have city facilities, says Pranab
- Former President Pranab Mukherjee on Sunday said more and more villagers must be connected with the “Smartgram” project to ensure peaceful, happy and prosperous villages.
- Mr. Mukherjee said that he had adopted the villages as he wanted the standard of living of the people staying there to be on a par with that in the cities.
- The Rasthrapati Bhavan Secretariat had adopted five villages in Haryana as part of this initiative and now its numbers had swollen to 100.
- The Pranab Mukherjee Foundation has initiated work for better education facilities in 64 of the total 100 villages adopted by it. Besides, 15 centres have been opened in these villages to disseminate information about organic farming. Seven health centres and five water ATMs have been set up.
- Turkey vows to abandon trade in dollars
- U.S. to cancel $300 mn aid to Pak.
- The U.S. military plans to cancel $300 million in aid to Pakistan due to Islamabad’s lack of “decisive actions” in support of American strategy in the region, the Pentagon said on Saturday.
- The U.S. has been pushing Pakistan to crack down on militant safe havens in the country, and announced a freeze on aid at the beginning of the year that an official said could be worth almost $2 billion.
- ‘Iran has to boost its defence capabilities’
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that war was unlikely but called on Iran’s armed forces to boost their defence capacities, according to his official website, as the country faces increased tension with the U.S.
- UN begins talks on treaty to protect imperilled high seas
- United Nations on Tuesday kicked-off talks on a 2020 treaty that would regulate the high seas, which cover half the planet yet lack adequate environmental protection.
- – Financial News