Table of Contents
What has happened?
- On World Population Day, chief minister Yogi Adityanath provoked a vociferous debate when he unveiled the Uttar Pradesh Population Policy 2021-2030.
- The policy aims to bring down the total fertility rate among women to 2.1 by 2026 and to 1.9 by 2030 — from the current rate of 2.7.
- “Across the world, concerns have been raised from time to time about increasing population being a hurdle in development. Discussions on it have been going on for the past four decades,” the CM said.
Questions being raised
- Amid the push for measures for population control by some BJP-ruled states such as Uttar Pradesh and Assam, Opposition parties are labelling it a “divisive measure” against a certain national demographic.
- As this clamour for such a policy grows, the swiftness with which these state governments have tried to create draft measures begs the question:
- Should this be the focus amid a pandemic? And, more importantly, is there really a population explosion?
What is TFR?
- The total fertility rate is the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years.
- A total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman ensures a broadly stable population.
India’s TFR
- Experts argue that there is no evidence of a “population explosion” in India as India’s desired value for TFR — has dipped below 2.1 in 19 states.
- India’s population is stabilising as per the Fifth National Family Health Survey (NFHS) as the total fertility rate has decreased across majority of the states.
- Of the 17 states analysed in the NFHS-5 data, except for Bihar, Manipur and Meghalaya, all other states have a TFR of 2.1 or less, which implies that most states have attained replacement level fertility.
Policy only in BJP-ruled states?
- Ahead of the Monsoon Session of the Parliament, three BJP-ruled states — Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Karnataka – are mulling prospects of a two-child policy.
- While most BJP leaders refrained from directly commenting on the alleged communal angle of the policy,
- Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said the proposal is partly to control the population growth of the northeastern state’s Bengali-speaking Bangladeshi Muslims.
- However, in Assam National Family Health Survey suggests, the use of any modern contraceptive methods is the highest amongst currently married Muslim women, at 49%,
- Compared to 45.7% for Christian women and 42.8% of Hindu women.
- Samajwadi Party MP Shafiqur Rahman Barq slammed the BJP government over its draft population control bill (In UP) and asked where will India get manpower in case of a war if people are not allowed to procreate.
Does religion has impact on Fertility rate?
- Even though Yogi Adityanath and Himanta Biswa Sarma have not targeted Muslims directly in their draft policies or announcements, the message against Muslims is clear.
- On several occassions, BJP leaders have explicitly or implicitly implied that it was one particular community that is driving the population surge.
- Muslim dominated countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh, have outperformed India in terms of falling birth rates.
- Even within India, fertility rates among Muslims in Kerala is lower than the fertility rates among Hindus in Bihar.
Policy could be counterproductive
- On paper, the draft population policy with its measures for safefuarding reproductive health, ending infant and maternal mortality and illnesses and focusing on nutritional status seem important initiatives.
- But the lack of supporting data and the timing make the intent of policy claims questionable.
- According to the draft, the UP government will also provide incentives to couples who have one child while denying government benefits to those having more than two children in its new population policy.
- However, a study by a former senior IAS officer, Nirmala Buch, found that men divorced their wives to run for local body elections and families gave up children for adoption to avoid disqualification in states that had adopted a two-child policy.
- The states also saw a rise in sex-selective and unsafe abortions.
- Population policies, experts suggest, must focus on “securing the reproductive health of women and girls, ensuring access and availability of modern contraceptives” instead of solely focusing on numbers.
Why bring the policy now?
- The Uttar Pradesh Population Policy 2021-2030 aims at bringing down the gross fertility rate among women to 1 by 2026 and to 1.9 by 2030.
- However, according to several reports, the fertility rate in Uttar Pradesh has nearly halved from 4.82 in 1993 to 2.7 in
- 2016 and is expected to touch 2.1 by 2025.
- The introduction of the bill ahead of the state Assembly polls early next year assumes significance.
Q) During which decade did India see a negative population growth?
- 1901-11
- 1911-21
- 1931-41
- 1951-61
Latest Burning Issues | Free PDF
WhatsApp