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Indian Economy To Bounce Back With 8.8% Growth In 2021 Says IMF – PDF

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  • Formed in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference primarily by the ideas of Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes.
  • India joined IMF in 1945.

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  • But does 8.8% growth in 2021 means V-shaped recovery?

Impact of this COVID-19

  • This crisis will likely leave scars well into the medium term as labor markets take time to heal, investment is held back by uncertainty and balance sheet problems, and lostschooling impairs human capital.
  • After the rebound in 2021, global growth is expected to gradually slow to about 5% into the medium term.
  • The cumulative loss in output relative to the pre-pandemic projected path is projected to grow from 11 trillion over 2020–21 to 28 trillion over 2020–25. 

More actions needed

  • The considerable global fiscal support of close to $12 trillion and the extensive rate cuts, liquidity injections, and asset purchases by central banks helped saved lives and livelihoods and prevented a financial catastrophe.
  • There is still much that needs to be done to ensure a sustained recovery.
  • First, greater international collaboration is needed to end this health crisis.
  • If medical solutions can be made available faster and more widely relative to our baseline,
  • It could lead to a cumulative increase in global income of almost $9 trillion by end-2025, raising incomes in all countries and reducing income divergence.
  • Second, to the extent possible, policies must aggressively focus on limiting persistent economic damage from this crisis.
  • Governments should continue to provide income support through well targeted cash transfers, wage subsidies, and unemployment insurance.
  • To prevent large scale bankruptcies and ensure workers can return to productive jobs, vulnerable but viable firms should continue to receive support.
  • Over time, as the recovery strengthens, policies should shift to facilitating reallocation of workers from sectors likely to shrink on a long-term basis (travel) to growingsectors (e-commerce).
  • A public green infrastructure investment push in times of low interest rates and high uncertainty can significantly increase jobs and accelerate the recovery
  • Investments in health, digital infrastructure, green infrastructure, and education can help achieve productive, inclusive, and sustainable growth.
  • And expanding the safety net where gaps exist can ensure the most vulnerable are protected while supporting near-term activity.

Conclusion

  • IMF warned that the pandemic will reverse the progress made since the 1990s in reducing global poverty and will increase inequality.
  • Close to 90 million people could fall below the $1.90 a day income threshold of extreme deprivation this year.

Q) Which of the following report is published by IMF (International Monetary Fund)?

  1. Global Financial System Report
  2. The Global Report
  3. Global Financial Stability Report
  4. World Development Report

Q) Which of the following statements regarding India’s 1991 crisis is correct?

  1. Currency overvaluation was one of the main reason for the crisis.
  2. India pledged more than 100 tons of Gold reserves as collateral security for $2.2 billion.
  3. India’s real GDP in 1991 was just around $265 billion.
  1. 1 & 2 only
  2. 2 & 3 only
  3. 1 & 3 only
  4. All of the above

 

 

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