Table of Contents
A brief history of democracy
“When shall we get freedom?”
“What shall we do with freedom?”
• Mahatma Gandhi answered the 1 st question – he launched his phase of our freedom struggle in 1919
• Once Gandhi lit the long-dormant spark within Indians, the British were out in less than 30 years “What shall we do with freedom?” — is still searching for answers across the world.
• Democracy, equality and their rights became fundamental principles of India’s Constitution.
• GGandhi believed in the people and their rights. British did not give us democracy. They gave only the Westminster model – it offers confidence at the electoral base, it begins to wobble at its upper stories.
• A president of America, in contrast, can only be removed from office through a fixed-date election
• France ended serial instability with President Charles de Gaulle’s reforms. (Italy hasn’t )
• In India political stability = Strong leader /PM
• Jawaharlal Nehru – Strongman till 1962 war
• In 1967 Indira Gandhi, lost all state governments.
• 1960s – India Faced hunger, violence and skewered policy.
• Leftist policies by Indira Gandhi
• Naxalite and communal violence spread across the country
• Mrs Gandhi blamed democracy instead of herself and imposed a draconian Emergency
• Our armed forces, protected India’s integrity in the 1965 war and decisively helped Bangladesh’s liberation war in 1971.
• In 1977 Janata Government was elected – failure
• 1980 – Mrs. Gandhi brought stability to Parliament but not to the country. Deals with radicals.
• In 1990 we were bankrupt.
• Economic reforms under hampered by unstable coalitions
• 1999 Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee led a comparatively stable government but had to juggle between 22 partners.
• UPA – legacy of corruption, in particular, the rampant collusion between the most powerful ministers and business interests through middlemen.
• India’s economy became a victim of its politics.
• 2014 – Modi Government
• Poverty alleviation was not enough; his mission was poverty elimination and to speak of development for all
• Today, an assessment by Brookings foresees only 3 per cent of India living below the poverty line by 2022.
Conclusion
• A stable government helps India show the world that freedom and prosperity can travel together. “By independence, we have lost the excuse of blaming the British for anything going wrong. If hereafter things go wrong, we will have nobody to blame except ourselves. There is great danger of things going wrong.” Babasaheb Ambedkar made this prophetic observation in his last Constituent Assembly speech in 1949.
Rupee and reform
1 USD= 70 INR → Reason – Turmoil in Turkey Effect on most emerging market economy (EME) currencies Today’s global scenario —>
• Rising US interest rates
• Monetary policy tightening by major central banks
• Elevated oil prices
• Mounting trade tensions Any adverse economic/geopolitical development, in Iran or Turkey, triggers capital outflows investors seek refuge in “safe haven” currencies
• Strong currency as synonymous with national pride, the fact is this is least helpful if it hurts the country’s trade competitiveness.
• India needs a focused strategy for boosting exports.
• Current account deficit widening from $15.3 billion in 2016-17 to $48.7 billion in 2017-18 What is a ‘Current Account Deficit’? The current account deficit is a measurement of a country’s trade where the value of the goods and services it imports exceeds the value of the goods and services it exports.
• The government should not lose sight of the need to maintain macroeconomic stability.
• In episodes of global selloff – countries with low inflation and control over twin deficits are less prone to capital flight and currency run.
• They are also more likely to benefit from inflows when the storm has passed.
• Equally important is not to resort to protectionism – import tariffs have been raised on more than 400 items during the last two years.
• This again betrays weakness, panic and faintheartedness — when strength, confidence and commitment to reforms is what matters to global investors.
Dreams of our father
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman 17 March 1920 – 15 August 1975 On August 15, Bangladesh mourns the death of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. He and his family were brutally assassinated. Vision of Shonar Bangla Bangabandhu – Poet of politics He led every struggle and democratic movement
• Language movement of 1952
• The election in 1954
• Mass movement against martial law in 1958
• The six-point movement in 1966
• The mass upsurge in 1969
• General elections in 1970 These movements were directed towards attaining the right to selfdetermination and independence through non-violent and constitutional means.
• Bangabandhu suffered more than anybody at the hands of Pakistanis and their cohorts and yet, in his first speech, he asked his people not to seek revenge
• Bangabandhu’s forward-looking foreign policy, based on peaceful coexistence and “friendship to all and malice towards none”
• UN General Assembly in 1974 – “peace is an imperative for the survival of mankind. It represents the deepest aspirations of men and women throughout the world. Peace to endure, however, must be based on justice.”
• The country was able to restore its devastated economic infrastructure
• millions of refugees returned from India and thousands of stranded Bangladeshis returned from Pakistan.
• The country adopted its first constitution providing the basic guidelines for the new state.
• The country’s first five-year plan was adopted, which gave primary emphasis to education, health, agriculture and rural development.
• The basic aim of the plan was to alleviate poverty and build Shonar Bangla. Under Sheikh Hasina , since 2009
• Average GDP growth rate of 6.6 per cent, while the developing economies’ average was 5.1 per cent.
• Public investment rose to 8.2 per cent from 4.3 per cent
• The per capita income increased from $759 to $1,752.
• The budget grew from Tk (taka) 89,000 crore to Tk 4,64,573 crore
• Exports registered an increase from $15.6 billion to $34.8 billion
• Human Development Index (HDI) is now 0.579 and Bangladesh is now categorised as a “Medium Human Development” country.
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