President Trump to meet Kim Jong un - Diplomatic Gamble

Table of Contents

A new chapter?

• Donald Trump meeting with Kim Jong-un.
• The notion appeared illusory
• If we turn some pages we find, tensions have been building between Washington and Pyongyang over North Korea’s repeated provocations and advancement of its nuclear and
ballistic missile programs.
• But things have dramatically shifted in recent weeks

How it all started?

1. North sent Kim Yo-jong, to the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in South Korea.
2. This was followed by the meeting between the South Korean officials and Mr. Kim.
3. Both Koreas have now agreed to hold a summit between Mr. Kim and Mr. Moon.

Meeting is possible: a big news

• South Korean envoys met Trump.
• South Korean envoys dropped the news at a quickly arranged press conference at the White House.
• South Korea’s National Security Advisor Chung Eui-yong revealed that Trump had agreed to meet Kim Jong-un by the end of May in order to achieve “permanent denuclearisation”.

Neighbours–

• Chung Eui-yong, is scheduled to meet China’s President Xi Jinping.
• Suh Hoon, chief of the intelligence agency, is headed to Tokyo to speak with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

USA’s stand

• Trump administration: “maximum pressure and engagement”
A far tighter sanctions regime
Enhanced deterrence with allies: Japan and South Korea
Discussed the potential for the use of military force against North Korea.
The risks and costs associated with the military option have been discussed at length.

What are the prospects?

• There is a deep need for diplomacy and engagement with the North.
• Dangerous uptick in tensions on the peninsula
• Anxiety among North Korea’s neighbours
•Harsh sanctions placed on North Korea had real effect in bringing them to the table.
• North Korea was going to possibly run out of hard currency by this October
• Leadership under huge pressure due to economical risks

What can be expected from North Korea?

• Kim: Byungjin Line
• Staked his regime legitimacy on his push to develop nuclear weapons + economic development
• There remains little chance that Kim is willing to barter away his one main insurance card – the nuclear programme – for regime survival.
• Security assurances
• Diplomatic recognition
• Acceptance from the Trump administration of its status as a nuclear weapons state
• Possible peace treaty

What can be expected from North Korea?

•North has halted missile and nuclear tests during previous talks, only to resume them when it lost patience or felt it was not getting what it demanded.
• To be clear, direct bilateral negotiations with the US have always been the primary goal for Pyongyang which wants to talk to Washington on an even platform, nuclear-weapons state to nuclear-weapons state.
• Their short term objectives will be to get some relief from the sanctions.

What can be expected from USA?

•No sitting US president has ever met the Kim regime, despite visits from former Presidents Carter and Clinton after they left the White House.
• The US has always maintained that the permanent denuclearisation of North Korea is the endgame.
•It is for this reason, and the prudent policy of not accepting North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, that Washington has consistently avoided rewarding Pyongyang with a concession such as high-level summit diplomacy.

What USA expects?-

• Tangible progress and commitment towards denuclearisation.
• A “double freeze” proposal.
• Logic behind the double freeze.
• A quarter century of isolation and engagement has failed to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear arsenal, and the Kim Jong-un regime has demonstrated no signs of giving up its nuclear weapons so far.

What needs to be done?

1. Washington needs to have clear, sustained, and coherent coordination with its main allies in the region – Japan and South Korea.
A. Japan had been lockstep with the Trump administration on its “maximum pressure” approach
B. Dismissed the notion of “talks for talk’s sake“
2. The concern remains that Pyongyang will use this summit to secure concessions that weaken deterrence and drive a wedge between the US and its allies, without living up to its promises.
3. North Korea has a long track-record of breaking its promises with regard to denuclearisation.

Possible outcomes-

•If North Korea agreeing to a freeze in nuclear test activities and letting international inspectors in to the country to view their nuclear facilities that would be a success.
• The worst case scenario is North Korea walking out of talks and claiming it’s because Trump is being totally unresponsive and the US is being difficult.