The Syrian War, Battle for Mosul & Aleppo | By Dr. Mahipal Singh Rathore

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Table of Contents

The nature of Syrian war

Civil unrest Religious war Proxy war/Cold war Arab Winter NOT JUST A CIVIL WAR

MAJOR FACTION

1. THE REGIME

Bashar al Assad Ba’ath party SupportersIran Russia China(diplomatic mostly)

2. MODERATE REBELS

Free syrian Army FSA Friends of Syria SupportersWestern nations Gulf states-Saudi arabia,Qatar Jordan Turkey

3. RADICAL OPPOSITION

JABAT AL NUSRA Al qaeda branch in Syria Now changed name-Jabat fateh al sham Supported bySaudi arabia Qatar

4. ISIL/ISIS/IS/Daesh

Islamic state of Iraq and AlSham/Levant Islamic state Caliphate Formed in iraq Off shoot of Al qaeda Broke away from Al Nusra in 2014

5. KURDS

Northern part of Syria ,Iraq Southern and eastern Turkey SYRIAN DEMOCRATIC FORCES SDF Want Autonomy YPG-peoples protection unit PKK- Kurdistan workers’ party (Turkey and Iraq)

How it Began?

Arab spring 2010-11 Bashar- Al-Assad – SHIA ALAWITE Reasons-

• Poverty

• Human rights

• Political repression- Sunnis

• Severe drought ,food prices 2011 Police and army fire over protestors Protestors arm themselves and shoot back Summer

2011

Defections from army – FSA

2012

Extremists pour in to syria to join the fight January- Jabat AL NUSRA formed Muslim brotherhood –backed by Turkey Kurds secede and declare autonomy Friends of Syria group formed – international diplomacy

• IRAN provides military support to ASSAD

• Gulf states + Turkey provide support to Rebels to counter Iran HEZBOLLAH- Lebanese Shia militia – support Assad Jordan- support to rebels

2013

USA approves CIA backed training to modetate rebels/opposition Asks Saudi to stop funding extremists groups AugustCHEMICAL ATTACKS by regime in Ghouta Russia convinces Assad to let OPCW dismantle all chemical weapons.

Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) – 2013 nobel for peace

2014

ISIL breaks away from Al Qaeda in Iraq Attacks Kurds and FSA (sometimes Al Nusra too) Caliphate – Raqqa city Iraq campaign in summer – Fallujah,Mosul USA led airstrikes against ISIL

2015

Turkey bombs kurds (PKK and YPG) in both Syria and Iraq ISIS takes Palmyra and other areas September – RUSSIA intervenes militarily Bombings against ISIL,Nusra,FSA

2016

ISIL losing ground Ceasefire between USA and RUSSIA in February and again in Septemberfails Toll till Sept 2016- 4,70,000 estimated deaths 19,00,000 Wounded

PEACE INITIATIVES

• Geneva I – 2012

• Geneva II -2014

• Vienna process – october 2015

• Genva III – 2016

MAJOR ISSUES

Crimes against Humanities Minorities targeted Refugee crisis Breakdown of an entire nation Entangled war

Crimes against Humanities

Cluster bombings Civilians targeted Human rights violations Chemical weapons ISIS barbarism Mass killings

Minorities targeted

Alawaites Druze Christians Shia Sunni (in shia majority areas)

Refugee crisis

Massive displacement of people 6 million internally 4.8 million externally Refugee crisis in Europe,Turkey,Lebanon,Jordan Worst situation after WW2 UNHCR- United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

Breakdown of a Nation

Massive infrastructure destruction Loss of cultural heritage Poverty ,illiteracy increased Health crisis- Polio resurfaced Quality of life plummeted ‘Syria can never be the same again’

Entangled war

Multiple sides fighting each other Shifting alliances among groups 75 rebel/opposition groups- makes peace talks very difficult The backing of world powers dragging the conflict World war 3?