Table of Contents
U.S IRAN TENSIONS
- Saudi Arabia said two of its oil tankers were attacked while sailing toward the Persian Gulf
- The tankers were damaged in “a sabotage attack” off the United Arab Emirates coast
- The vessels were approaching the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important chokepoint for oil shipments.
U.S IRAN TENSIONS
NOTES
- Presidential tweet was presumably partly motivated by the Iraqi government reporting that a rocket had been fired into Baghdad’s Green Zone — an area that includes government buildings as well as the U.S. Embassy.
THE IMPACT IN US
- US Americans believe war with Iran is coming: poll
- According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday, 64% percent of Americans — including a large majority of Republicans — support the 2015 deal designed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief.
- Amid the brewing tensions, 51% of respondents indicated that the United States and Iran would go to war within the next few years
ISRAEL’S VIEW
- The latest wave of US sanctions has significantly curbed Iran’s ability to fund Hezbollah, The Washington Post reported
- The Lebanese terrorist group
ISRAEL’S VIEW
INDIA’S VIEW
- Supply worries are a major part of the problem. This is particularly true for India, as the Iranian crude came at a discount on price as well as lower cost of shipping, insurance and with a longer credit period.
- There may still be a small window available for getting crude as part of rupee trade with Iran, but there is no guarantee that such supplies could escape the prying eyes of US surveillance.
INDIA’S VIEW
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was in New Delhi last week for discussions with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to seek India’s support in the ongoing crisis with Washington.
- India seems to have conveyed that any decision on oil purchase from Iran will have to wait for the new government in Delhi. While Zarif described his talks with India as “excellent” and blamed the US for “escalating the situation in the region,”
INDIA’S VIEW
- What India worries
- Nearly a third of all crude flow happens through Iran’s strategic Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has been using as a bargaining point in its tiff with the US.
- As US President Donald Trump announced walking out of the nuclear deal with Iran unilaterally, there have been apprehensions of Tehran trying to disrupt traffic through the channel.
IF STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS BLOCKED
- Should things come to a crunch, Abu Dhabi has secured its oil exports by building a strategic pipeline to the northern emirate of Fujairah, opening up a new supply route to the Indian Ocean bypassing Hormuz.
CAN IRAN CRASH OIL MARKETS BY BLOCKADING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?
CAN IRAN CRASH OIL MARKETS BY BLOCKADING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?
- A recent oil industry analysis shows that if Iran chose to cordon off the strategic Strait of Hormuz, nearly 20 million barrels b/d of crude oil – roughly 40% of global seaborne oil exports – would stop flowing from the Arab Gulf.
IRAN HAS THREATENED THIS BEFORE
- 2011–12 Strait of Hormuz dispute
- A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would inflate oil prices, not only in the west, but in Asian countries such as Japan, India and South Korea. All three countries collectively account for 42% of Iranian oil exports – Japan 17%, South Korea 9%, and India 16%.
PAKISTAN’S VIEW
- Pakistan has already stated that it will not take sides in the current confrontation, and called for US restraint.
- The Pakistani Parliament’s decision in 2015 not to send troops to support the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen set an excellent precedent for this neutrality.
PAKISTAN’S VIEW
- The reasons for Pakistan to maintain good ties with Iran persist: the 950-kilometre border; the need for counterterrorism cooperation and a coordinated approach towards ending the Afghan conflict; to prevent entanglement in a Middle Eastern arms race; and most importantly, to stave off threats of renewed proxy sectarian conflict within Pakistan.
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