UPSC Optional Political Science & IR 2018 | Important Notes & Study Material

Indian Ocean

Challenges to IOR

Established in the 1990s, IORA is a regional forum that has not particularly been significant in shaping the choices of its 21 littoral members.

Tripartite membership – Govt, industry, academia come together with

Open regionalism

Aims

Result

IORA Summit in Jakarta 2017 – Drew attention to a range of issues

India has taken the initiative of revitalising IORA.

PM – given the vision of SAGAR – Security and Growth of all in the region

Final declaration – Jakarta Concorde – revitalising IORA and recognising India’s role .

India Maldives have deep historical and cultural relations

Strategic location of Maldives in the Indian Ocean makes its stability of paramount importance to India

I-M have had their highs and lows

• India helped Maldives build its Coastal Surveillance capabilities
• India was first to rescue when due to fire in Sewage Treatment Plant, Maldives was left with no clean drinking water

1988 – India had helped against Coup from Lankan Militia

• Under the presidency of Gayoon who had actively sought India’s help

Yameen Govt

• Criminalised defamation
• Curbing FOSE
• Curbing Free and Fair elections

Impacts on India

• Tilt towards China – Strategic location
• Islamic Extremism on the rise
• Piracy in IOR
• Security of Indian Expatraite community

India’s options

• Economic sanctions – could backfire like in Nepal
• Cancelling joint developing projects
• Initiative at the international platform – boost India’s image as a regional power and bring much needed stability to the Indian neighborhood.

• Greater P2P contact ==> Economic and strategic interdependence
• Focus
  • Education
  • Culture
  • Tourism
  • Communication
  • Transport

• For long – languishing – Act East Policy 2014 – new momentum
• Program of Action 2016-18
  • Expand coop in
    • Commerce
    • IT
    • Pharma
    • Automobiles
  • Line of credit
  • Motor Vehicle Agreement
  • Trade has increased
  • Nalanda University – strengthening Inter-Asian cooperation & facilitating research on Mekong Ganga region
  • India – repairing heritage sites

• Emerged out of dissatisfaction with the attitude of developed countries towards Doha Dev Agenda agreed on 2001
• Geo Strategic move
  • Ever since NEP – more focus on the developed world
  • Lost traditional status as leader of the 3rd world
  • New NAM – more practical approach to S-S cooperation
• Agenda of IBSA
  • Reform in instis of Global governance
  • Promoting S-S Cooperation
• 3 leading countries of 3 diff continents
  • Democracies
  • No conflicts
  • Huge complementarity
• China’s attitude –
  • Pressurising India to include China —> CHIBSA
  • India smartly kept out – Only for democracies
  • China brought in S.Africa in BRIC – even though S.Africa economy too small compared to BRIC
    • All 3 members of BRICS
    • IBSA – no need for a separate platform

• Actual scenario
  • Pending since 2012
  • India needs to keep the spirit – other 2 – pro-China – will not mind dissolving IBSA
• Achievements
  • IBSA fund – $1 mn annually each
    • Waste Mgt
    • Public Health Centre
    • Irrigation projects in Vietnam
    • Sports complex in Palestine
    • Capacity building in Burundi – to tackle HIV/AIDS
  • IBSA Fund – presently managed by UNDP – demand driven without conditionality’s
• IBSA vs NAM
  • NAM – Geopolitical goals – WTO, UNSC, CC
  • IBSA – Geoeconomic goals – Funding, SS coop

• Trans-regional grouping established in 1996 with India+BD+Myanmar+Thailand – to promote broader economic cooperation
• Later in 2004 – Bhutan + Nepal + SL were also added
  • making one of the strongest efforts of bridging gap b/w South Asia and South East Asia
• 2010 – expanded scope – now includes – 14 – write anything
  • S&T
  • Trade
  • DM
  • CC
  • Environmental issues
  • P2P coop etc
  • Agriculture
  • Counter-terrorism
• SAARC ending up being a hostage to India-Pak rivalries
• Recent BRICS Goa Summit 2016 – BIMSTEC outreach on the side
• Others
  • IMT
  • Kaladan
  • BBIN MVA
• Most imp driver – BIMSTEC FTA
  • Signed but not yet come into force
  • Quickly expand it beyond goods to include services and investment
• Given the geo-strategic importance of BIMSTEC countries – India should take a proactive and pragmatic approach to the regional grouping.
• Could start by Creating a separate BIMSTEC division in MoEA

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• 30 million strong Diaspora over 100 countries
  • PIO
  • NRI
• Contributing significantly
  • Investment
  • Transfer of tech
  • Foreign trade
  • Development of soft power
  • Considerable Wealth
  • Top positions
  • Remittances – 5 lakh cr
  • Act as Informal Ambassadors- Help cultivate soft power
  • Soft Diplomacy – lobbies for Indian interests
• USA – Indian community lobbying
  • Kargil war support
  • Nuclear tests support
  • Civil Nuclear deal
• Kanal Sibal – core Foreign policy objectives
• What should be done – CRM
  • More of
    • New York – Madison Square
    • London – Wembley Stadium
  • Encouraging back into India – significant skill sets and tech knowledge
  • Encouraging to invest in social sector – rural sanitation, health initiatives, edu – by easing the rules and increasing efficiency
  • Rescue efforts – SM, Rahat – sense of entitlement in diaspora
• Modi Doctrine consists of
  • Diaspora
  • Delivery
  • and should be expanded multi-dimensionally.
• Govt steps
  • Indian Community Welfare Fund
  • Pravasi Bharatiya divas
  • PB Samman Awards
  • Know India Program
  • Study India Program
  • OCI scheme
  • Skill Banks
  • PKVY

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• 19th Centy – Britain’s century
• 20th Cent – American Century
• It was said that 21st cent would be Asian century
  • Economic
    • Japan – economic juggernaut 1970s
    • China – Largest PPP
    • India- still a bright spot in Global economic crisis
    • The SE Asian Tigers
    • World Trade and Investment was running due to growth in these
  • Others
    • Large Militaries
    • Large Populations – DD
    • Culture
    • Science proliferation – large no. of scientists being Asian
• However – challenges
  • Security
    • China – revisionist power – Changing the status quo – assertive, coercive, disputes with neighbours
    • Boundary disputes – arms race
    • N. Korea – deadly threat
    • Pakistan – epicentre of Terrorism
    • India-China rivalry
  • Economy
    • China’s new normal
    • Japan’s stagnant economy
  • Demography
    • Decreasing populations in – JAP, SK, Taiwan, Singapore
• Still
  • Africa – war torn
  • ME – cold wars & terrorism
  • LAC – slowing economies
  • EU – Ageing population
  • Asia – looks like the only place with potential to rise phenomenally
• Coop among all countries, Strat dialogue at highest level and resolving each others grievances.

Myanmar

• Geopolitically
  • BIMSTEC
  • ASEAN
  • MGCoop
  • SAARC – observer status
• Geo-economically
  • Act East – Important for connectivity to SE Asia and Development of NE
  • BCIM corridor
  • Energy – Oil and Natural reserves
  • Wanting to move away from China’s extractive policies in MY towards India
• Geo-strategically
  • Important location in the Indian Ocean – String of pearl strategy
  • Long border – stability of NE
  • Counter terrorism – NSCN-K

Relations

• India had good relations with Myanmar after independence
• 1962 successful Military coup – relations deteriorated
  • India supported the pro-democracy movement
• Improving relations since 1993 – Narsimha Rao govt
• Improved over the last 2 decades (1990s) to balance Chinese growing influence
• New Delhi proposed to Integrate economic development of India’s NE region and Myanmar
• International Forums
  • BCIM
  • BIMSTEC
• Infra Projects
  • Myanmar Institute of Info Tech (MIIT)
  • Children’s hospitals
  • Power supply from Moreh
• Reviving trans-border links with NE and Myanmar
  • IMT Highway
  • Kaladan Multimodal project – in case China strangles the Chicken neck
• Counter-terror operations

• Politically sensitive issue of Rohingyas statehood
• Myanmar being used as safe haven by insurgents – NSCN-K

• Strengthen ties using soft power
  • Yoga
  • Buddhism
  • Bollywood
• Awareness regarding India’s projects in MY to build soft power
• India – largest vibrant democracy – can share experiences to accommodate minorities

• Civilisational, religious
• Cultural and economic ties
• which have the capacity to provide a strong impetus to the nascent relationship

• Intro
• Vital component of Act East policy
• Transitioning from Look East to Act East and Enforce East – importance of Myanmar cannot be overstated

• Since 1990s – Look East – Myanmar important role
• But with political instability and period of transition, India overlooked Myanmar and developed ties with ASEAN

• But with democratic coefficient increasing post Nov 15, Myanmar has got centrality to India’s AEP.
• Connectivity

Srilanka

• India-Sri Lanka relationship has deep historical and cultural linkages
• In recent years domestic politics in both countries has effected relationships
• China – look at Sri-Lanka from a purely strategic point of view
• India’s Sri-Lanka policy can be described as – Sailing in 2 boats

• Geo-strategic – Stationary ship in the Indian ocean
• Geo-economic – Oil and Gas reservers, FTA 2000 ( In Goods)
  • Working on Economic & Tech Coop Agreement ( ETCA)
    • Trade in services
    • Investment issues
    • Coop in various felids like technology

• Reasons
  • Citizenship
  • Official language issue
• Sinhala Only Act
• 3 decade long armed conflict with LTTE ended in 2009
• India supported the Sri Lankan govt, while expressing at the highest levels deep concern at the plight of mostly Tamilian civil population

• Provincial autonomy
• 9 provinces – each – directly elected provincial council
• Tamil – 2nd Official language ; English as connector
• Implementation
  • Implemented in all provinces except the Northern Province because of LTTE activities
  • Rajapaksa govt – resentment – will go for a home grown solution
  • Tamils resentment – not a federation

• India realised – Not much pressure bilaterally – started working with international community
• UNHRC wants to put sanctions
• India, China protecting Sri-Lanka as of now
• Time given to address the Tamilian issues
• India – strategic approach – balancing China

• Constituent Assly
• Establishment of Parliamentary form of govt
• Review of Preventive detention laws
• Possibility of converting Sri-Lanka into a federation

• Elected govt in the Northern Province led by TNA – grievances
  • No land or police powers
  • No financial powers
  • CM – no bill w/o governors permission
  • Governor by central govt – retd civil servants
• India is providing developmental assistance to develop the civil ravaged Tamil area

• Investigation for war crimes
• Missing persons
• Army still occupies Tamilian lands
• Jaffna has been militarised – difficult to get back to normal life
• The Govt formed after elections in the Northern provinces
  • No land or police powers
  • CM – Cannot present any bill w/o Central govt apptd Governor
  • No financial powers

• Fishing dispute has been a constant area of concern b/w 2 South Asian neighbours for a long time.
• Sri Lanka has long expressed concerns about illegal fishing by Indian fishermen within its territorial region
• Indian fishermen entering Sri Lankan waters – bottom trawling – ecologically unsustainable fishing
  • Illegal in SL
• Why trespass
  • Consider historic right in waters
  • Maritime Agreement of 1974 – gave away Katchatheevu island – no clear mention of fishing rights
• Concern
  • Sri-Lankan navy shooting Indian fishermen
  • Against UNCLOS
  • Govt of India & Sri Lanka – taken steps
    • Established a Joint working Group (JWG) on fisheries
      • Hotline b/w coast guards of both countries
      • NO violence and loss of lives of fishermen
    • Release fishermen and their boats on humanitarian grounds
    • Indian govt preparing Indian fishermen for deep sea fishing

Bhutan 

• Most successful
• India’s only all weather friend
• Winds of Change
• Importance of Bhutan
  • Chumbi Valley
  • Strategic importance
  • Buffer state
  • Contain insurgency in NE
  • Boycotted BRI

• Treaty of Peace, friendship and Cooperation
  • Art 1
    • India as natural partner
    • Perpetual peace and Friendship
  • Art 2
    • India – not interfere in domestic affairs
    • Bhutan agrees to be guided by India in external affairs
  • Not to undermine but to Protect Bhutan’s sovereignty
  • Not in strict sense – Bhutan taken independent stands at various multilateral forums
  • India – even allowed Bhutan to hold border talks with China
• 2007 – Revised Treaty
  • India from a guiding partner to a close friend and equal partner
  • However, Bhutan cannot permit any Anti-India activity on its territory

• India Bhutan relations
  • India – supporting Bhutan’s 5YP economically
  • India is Bhutans largest trading partner
    • Main export of Bhutan – electricity 
    • Bhutan’s major imports from India 
    • Hydropower – run of the river dams 
  • BBIN – came out of it as Bhutan considered that it would just increase pollution
  • Modi Mantra
    • B2B – Bhutan to Bharat and Bharat to Bhutan
    • Modi – Bhutan ket priority in India’s foreign policy
    • Union of Heart and soul

I & W ACT EAST

• Most Successful regional cooperation in the 3rd World
• 3 Pillars
  • Economic
  • Political and strategic
  • Cultural
• ASEAN way
  • Non interference in domestic affairs
  • Intergovernmentalism rather than supranationalism – minimum institutionalisation
  • By Consensus and not qualified majority
•  Achievements
  • Nuclear weapon free zone
  • Economically dynamic region
  • Commitment to HRs
• Challenges
  • Divided on Geo-strategic issues
    • Rising China
      • Indonesia, Malaysia – neutral
      • Laos, Cambodia – Anti-China
      • Philippines – going towards China
      • Others – Pro west
  • HRs – Rohingyas
  • Political instability in Thailand
  • Economic disparities and regional imbalance

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India 

• Geopolitical
  • Reform of instis of Global governance
  • UNSC reforms
  • CC
• Geo-strategic
  • Maritime boundary disputes with China
  • Intersection of major land and sea routes
  • India in the security architecture – East Asia Summit
  • Counter terrorism – especially rising influence of ISIS
  • Human and drug Trafficking
• Geo-economic
  • ASEAN-India FTA (AIFTA) in goods and services —> 4th Largest trading partner : $200 bn by 2020
  • Energy Security – Oil and NG deposits in SCS
  • RCEP = ASEAN + 6
  • IMT Highway, Kaladan Multimodal

• Cold war saw benign neglect,  with an inward looking and protectionist India focussed on its immediate neighbourhood
• Post cold war India started emphasising on greater political, strategic and economic relations with the Eastern frontier
• Thus PV Nar launched LEP the was built upon long cultural & civilisational ties shared with the region.
• Greater engagement with counties through subregional cooperation in BIMSTEC, MKG
• Cold war
  • Initially reluctant – Pro-US block
• Post Cold war
  • Not good relations in South Asia  – looked towards Extended neighbourhood
  • 1992 – Look East Phase 1
    • Narsimha Rao
    • ASEAN
    • Economic sphere
  • 2000s – Look East Phase 2
    • Vajpayee
    • ASEAN + Bilateral relations – Vietnam, Japan and S.Korea
    • Multiple dimensions – connectivity, economic, strategic
      • Connectivity
        • BIMSTEC
        • Mekong G Cooperation
  • Why Look East
    • NEP
    • Disappointed in immediate neighbourhood
    • Disintegration of USSR – New friends
    • India-US relations
    • Rise of China
    • Civilisational links
    • SE asia Looking West
  • Recent – Act East Policy ( AEP) – 2014
    • Based on 3Cs
      • Commerce
      • Culture
      • Connectivity
    • Changes from LEP
      • Geography: Indo Pacific to Asia Pacific
        • ASEAN + Japan, SK, Aus, NZ, Mongolia, Pacific Island nations
      • More focus on Seas rather than land
      • India-US entered into Maritime security dialogue
      • Priority on development of NE as a part of AEP
      • Special place for CMLV on Act East
    • Focus on
      • Infra & Connectivity
      • Partnership – MII, SI, Smart City, ISA
    • Why Act East
      • USA’s Pivot to Asia
      • US pushing India to take up leadership role- not just think East but act and engage East .

Challenges

These are early days of AEP. India must continue to further strengthen relations with the ASEAN nations and others across various dimensions. In addition, Soft powersuch as Buddhism, tourism, P2P contacts and cultural ties with the region must continued to be harnessed.